Survival bias is a common cognitive bias that warps our understanding of success and failure. It occurs when we focus on the people or things that have “survived” or succeeded, while ignoring those that have failed or been eliminated. This bias can lead us to make incorrect assumptions about what it takes to be successful and can distort our perception of reality.
One of the most famous examples of survival bias comes from World War II. During the war, the U.S. military wanted to improve the armour on their planes to increase their chances of surviving enemy attacks. To do this, they analysed the bullet holes on the planes that returned from missions and reinforced those areas with additional armour. However, statistician Abraham Wald argued that they were only looking at the planes that survived – instead, they should be focusing on the planes that didn’t return. By doing so, they could identify the areas that needed extra protection to increase the survival rate of all planes. This example illustrates how survival bias can lead us astray and cause us to make incorrect decisions.
In our personal and professional lives, survival bias can lead us to believe that success is only achievable by following a certain path or by possessing specific traits. We see successful people around us and assume that they have some magic formula for success that we lack. However, we often fail to see the countless others who have failed or fallen by the wayside. We ignore the hard work, perseverance, and luck that played a role in their success and instead focus on their favourable outcomes.
To overcome survival bias, it’s essential to recognise that success is not guaranteed and that failure is a natural part of the process. We must also be willing to learn from our failures and the failures of others, rather than simply focusing on the survivors. By understanding the full spectrum of outcomes, we can make more informed decisions and set more realistic expectations for ourselves.
Ultimately, survival bias reminds us that success is not a linear path and that we must be willing to embrace failure and setbacks along the way. By acknowledging the role that luck, timing, and circumstance play in success, we can gain a more realistic and balanced perspective on what it takes to achieve our goals.
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