This is a short video answering some questions in relation to how to cope with the intensity of the coronavirus pandemic by focusing on psychological survival and wellbeing at home.
Tag: Public Health
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COVID-19: Situation Report, Administrative Challenges, and What Psychologists can do to Help the Crisis
UK-specific numbers
As of 10 April 2020:
CONFIRMED CASES: 73,758
PATIENTS DISCHARGED: 344
PATIENTS WHO DIED: 8,958
Worldometers (2020)
Are the numbers to be trusted?
There is a certain ‘mystery’ with the numbers. For instance, the GOV.UK’s (2020a) dashboard has not been updating the recovery section of its spreadsheet since the 22nd March. This has led to much confusion, and many people are suspicious of the numbers being provided. For instance, the media (Merrick, 2020) announced that health secretary Matt Hancock tested positive for coronavirus on the 27th March, 2020. Then on the 2nd April, 2020 he was back to work (Matt Hancock gives first coronavirus briefing since coming out of isolation, 2020) and was looking healthy. Nevertheless, the historic record spreadsheet did not register his recovery, indicating that maybe only those admitted to hospital are being registered in the records.
Another odd discrepancy is the fact that even though Worldometers (2020) updated for the first time this month the number of recovered patients yesterday to 344, the historic record document mentioned above- which is available on the GOV.UK’s (2020a) dashboard- continues to show 135 as the number of recoveries. This is worrisome as it gives an impression of misinformation and it elicits uncertainty. No wonder many people are having a gut feeling of ‘deception’ at the hands of the GOV.
What is the government’s plan?
As of the date of this writing, the GOV.UK’s (2020b) coronavirus action plan is full of misinformation and inaccuracies. I wrote to the Department of Health & Social Care (GOV.UK, 2020c) on the 1st April in order to communicate my concerns in regards to their published document and to request more frequent reviews of it. Nevertheless, nothing has been done about it, and the file continues to create feelings of confusion and uncertainty. Here you can download the analysis I conducted. You will be able to understand the discrepancies better after reading it.
What is the WHO saying?
I attended the World Health Organization’s (2020) press briefing yesterday (10th April). Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General stated: “When health workers are at risk, we are all at risk”. There were many important calls to action, such as ensuring that medical staff are able to have adequate rest periods instead of long, exploitative shifts; the development of an immune response; and the clarification of the severity of the disease. For instance, so far we have heard about patients who are in mild, and critical conditions. It was mentioned in the conference that an explanation of the moderate condition would be helpful, as there are confirmed cases of pneumonia which have not required hospitalization.
Another important point discussed was that the death of health workers has become a ‘tragic’ stimulus to action. The health environment was spoken about as a double-edged sword. It was also raised that personal protective equipment (PPE) is therefore a must have in hospitals in order to reduce the exposure of health workers to infectious hazards. This reminds us of the importance of staying at home and protecting the NHS. Furthermore, it was also suggested that psychosocial support for front-line and health workers should be made readily available, and reasonable adjustments should also be made by administrative staff in order to prevent doctors and nurses from developing fatigue as a result of extremely long shifts.
What can psychologists do to help the coronavirus crisis?
The coronavirus (COVID-2019) impacts on different people in different ways. Psychologically speaking, this requires an ongoing decision-making process based on the likelihood of catching the virus, and the perceived severity of the consequences.
“The barriers component may comprise both physical limitations on performing a behaviour (e.g. expense) and psychological costs associated with its performance (e.g. distress)”.
Abraham and Sheeran (1996, p. 33)The outbreak is by all means a stress-generative situation. Exploring the psychopathology of the coronavirus pandemic, such as the negative and positive symptoms it causes (e.g. confusion, neurosis, and psychosis) would help both, professionals and students to feel more efficient in their preparedness for what is to come next. For example, the concept of normal distribution and the curve as illustrated by The Visual and Data Journalism Team (2020) would help people understand what is meant by “the peak” of the outbreak that so many sources are expecting and talking about.

Psychologists are also encouraged to help people understand the serious challenge at hand, and the levels of vulnerability in individual differences. Moreover, it would also be helpful to stimulate the GOV so they respond quicker without the need for the tragic stimulus of death explained above. Furthermore, exploring the cycle of panic and neglect that manifests as response to the threat would help soothe emotionally vulnerable human beings. Advice about how to strengthen the system is welcome. When it comes to forensic psychologists, it would be useful to elucidate how data formulates policy, and why it is important to have accurate data in order to prevent confusion at subnational levels, including criminal justice settings.
How can I check the coronavirus numbers for myself?
There are two ways you can check the coronavirus statistics. For global numbers go to Worldometers.info/coronavirus.
For UK-specific numbers:
- Go to the GOV.UK’s (2020a) Dashboard.
- Click on the ‘About’ tab at the bottom of the page.
- Click on the ‘Access historic data from the dashboard (xlsx)’ link.
- Save the file on your device.
- Open the file with a spreadsheet software such as Google Sheets (n.d.), Microsoft Office Excel (n.d.), or LibreOffice Calc (n.d.).
Please note that GOV staff have neglected the recovery section in the official spreadsheet since 22nd March, 2020. If you are concerned about the numbers, please contact the Department of Health & Social Care on https://contactus.dhsc.gov.uk/ and explain to them your concerns.
References
Abraham, C. and Sheeran, P. (1996) ‘The health belief model’, in Conner, M. and Norman, P. (eds) Predicting Health Behaviour, Buckingham, Open University Press, pp. 23-61.
Google (n.d.) ‘Google Sheets’ [Online]. Available at https://www.google.co.uk/sheets/about/ (Accessed 11 April 2020).
GOV.UK (2020a) ‘Total UK COVID-19 cases’, 4th April [Online]. Available at https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae (Accessed 11 April 2020).
GOV.UK (2020b) ‘Coronavirus action plan: a guide to what you can expect across the UK’, 3 March [Online]. Available at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/869827/Coronavirus_action_plan_-_a_guide_to_what_you_can_expect_across_the_UK.pdf (Accessed 11 April 2020).
GOV.UK (2020c) ‘Department of Health & Social Care’ [Online]. Available at https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-health-and-social-care (Accessed 11 April 2020).
LibreOffice (n.d.) ‘Calc’ [Online]. Available at https://www.libreoffice.org/discover/calc/ (Accessed 11 April 2020).
Matt Hancock gives first coronavirus briefing since coming out of isolation (2020), Youtube video, added by The Sun [Online]. Available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrF6Z8s5dmw (Accessed 10 April 2020).
Merrick, R. (2020) ‘Coronavirus: Health secretary Matt Hancock tests positive’, The Independent, 27 March [Online]. Available at https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-matt-hancock-boris-johnson-test-positive-covid-19-symptoms-a9430031.html (Accessed 10 April 2020).
Microsoft (n.d.) ‘Office Excel’ [Online]. Available at https://products.office.com/en-gb/excel (Accessed 11 April 2020).
The Visual and Data Journalism Team (2020) ‘Coronavirus pandemic: tracking the global outbreak’, BBC News, 10 April [Online]. Available at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105 (Accessed 11 April 2020).
World Health Organization (2020) ‘Coronavirus Disease (COVID-2019) press briefings’ [Online]. Available at https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/press-briefings (Accessed 10 April 2020).
World Health Organization (n.d.) ‘Biography of Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General’ [Online]. Available at https://www.who.int/antimicrobial-resistance/interagency-coordination-group/dg_who_bio/en/ (Accessed 11 April 2020).
Worldometers (2020) ‘COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic’ [Online]. Available at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed 11 April 2020).
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Coronavirus (COVID-19): Understanding the New Status Quo, Following Governmental Advice, and Interpreting the Numbers
We have heard the advice, but how can we interpret the information? Why follow the lockdown protocols? This article will clarify the coronavirus’ status quo.
UK-specific numbers:
CONFIRMED CASES: 47,806.
PATIENTS DISCHARGED: 135.
PATIENTS WHO DIED: 4,934.
(GOV.UK, 2020b)
What’s the difference between the coronavirus and COVID-19?
The coronavirus is what people catch, and the COVID-19 is the respiratory disease that can develop. A good analogy for understanding the differences between the two terms is HIV and AIDS. Whilst not all people who test positive for HIV develop AIDS, those who do develop it become severely ill. Similarly, not everyone testing positive for the coronavirus develops COVID-19, but those who do develop it are hospitalised and become severely ill. This is why preventing catching the coronavirus is just as important as preventing catching HIV.

What is the likelihood of catching the coronavirus?
As of the date of this writing, and according to Worldometers (2020a), there have been 47,806 confirmed cases in the UK, which has a population of 67,802,457 (Worldometers, 2020b). This means that the total number of hospital admissions per 1 million population is approximately 704, and the number of deaths per 1 million population is 73. Furthermore, Plymouth (the city where I live) had a population of 264,200 as of February (World Population Review, 2020), and as of the date of this writing it has had a total of 102 hospital admissions (GOV.UK, 2020b), out of which 13 (approximately 12.8%) patients have died (O’Leary, 2020); which means that even though there is a low risk of catching the virus, those who do catch it and develop COVID-19 are at high risk of dying.
Why should I stay at home?
Because you do not know whether you are infected or not, and if you are coronavirus positive but you have not developed COVID-19; you could still pass the virus onto other people who might be more vulnerable than you and who might develop COVID-19. Alternatively, you could catch the virus and in the worst case scenario die.

How is staying at home protecting the NHS?
When you prevent catching the coronavirus, you also prevent spreading it around. This means that you are doing everything you can to make sure that the NHS does not become overwhelmed with patients.
What preventive action can be taken?
- You could self-educate on the topic in order to feel confident that you know what’s going on, and how to survive the crisis.
- You could stay home in order to prevent becoming a patient, or spreading the virus (creating patients). This means that the NHS will have more supplies to deal with the overwhelming number of cases, and those severely ill will have a higher chance of getting the medical attention and equipment that they need.
- You could share the information with your friends and family.

What reliable advice is available?
- The World Health Organization (WHO; 2020a) has a section dedicated to the coronavirus pandemic with all available scientific information.
- The NHS.UK (2020) has a section also dedicated to the disease.
- The GOV.UK (2020a) also has a section dedicated to the lockdown in relation to the pandemic.
How is the virus transmitted?
According the World Health Organization (WHO; 2020b) “COVID-19 virus is primarily transmitted between people through respiratory droplets and contact routes […] transmission of the COVID-19 virus can occur by direct contact with infected people and indirect contact with surfaces in the immediate environment or with objects used on the infected person […] Airborne transmission is different from droplet transmission […]can remain in the air for long periods of time and be transmitted to others over distances greater than 1 m”.
References
GOV.UK (2020a) ‘Coronavirus (COVID-19): what you need to do’ [Online]. Available at https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus (Accessed 5 April 2020).
GOV.UK (2020b) ‘Total UK COVID-19 cases’, 4th April [Online]. Available at https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae (Accessed 5 April 2020).
NHS.UK (2020) ‘Advice for everyone’, 3 April [Online]. Available at https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/ (Accessed 4 April 2020).
O’Leary, M. (2020) ‘Ten coronavirus deaths confirmed in past 24 hours across Devon and Cornwall’, Plymouth Herald, 5 April [Online]. Available at https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/coronavirus-death-toll-uk-risen-4021937 (Accessed 5 April 2020).
World Health Organization (2020a) ‘Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic’ [Online]. Available at https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019 (Accessed 5 April 2020).
World Health Organization (2020b) ‘Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations’, 29 March [Online]. Available at https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations (Accessed 5 April 2020).
World Population Review (2020) ‘Plymouth population 2020’, 17 February [Online]. Available at https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/plymouth-population/ (Accessed 5 April 2020).
Worldometers (2020a) ‘COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic’, 5 April [Online]. Available at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed 5 April 2020).
Worldometers (2020b) ‘U.K. Population’, 5 April [Online]. Available at https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/ (Accessed 5 April 2020).
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Coronavirus (COVID-19): Base Rate Fallacy, Everyday Heuristics, Panic, and the Media’s Influence
The digital world is spreading the panic disease at a faster pace than the coronavirus outbreak. It is very easy to panic when confronted with sensationalist information. This is why analysing the situation closely is the best thing anyone can do for their mental health.
Overview:
So far, there have been over 244,000 reported cases globally, and out of those over 10,000 have resulted in death, and over 87,000 have resulted in recovery. This suggests that the great majority of infected people recover. Moreover, there are over 147,000 active cases, out of which more than 139,000 are reported as in mild condition, whereas only 7,516 are reported as in critical condition. This indicates that most people diagnosed with the disease are at low risk of death in comparison with the minority which is at high risk of death. It is true that coronavirus death rates have been burgeoning. Nevertheless, there are many reasons why people die, and it is important to keep these rates in mind when making inferences.
Worldmeter (2020).
Daily global deaths:
- Over 1,000 have died today due to COVID-19
- Over 1,000 have died today due to seasonal flu.
- Over 2,500 people have died today by suicide.
- Over 2,500 people have died today due to malaria.
- Over 6,000 people have died today due to alcohol.
- Over 4,000 people have died today due to HIV/AIDS.
- Over 13,000 people have died today due to smoking.
- Over 21,000 people have died today due to cancer.
Worldmeter (2020).
UK specific figures
“As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,621 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,269 were confirmed positive. As of 1pm 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died”.
GOV.UK (2020b)Understanding global emergencies
What is the level of risk with the coronavirus?
Based on the research presented above which was collected today, so far the risk that the coronavirus poses is very similar to the risk that the seasonal flu poses. The problem is that COVID-19 has no vaccination yet, and it is also extremely contagious in comparison to less contagious diseases such as AIDS/HIV. Another risk is that the virus is spreading very fast.
Should I panic?
No. Panic is not good for anyone. Panic happens because the media industry tends to engage in what can be described as a base rate fallacy (Hardman, 2015) which is the idea that people tend attribute a higher level of risk to a situation when they are not aware of the actual base rates of such phenomena. As demonstrated with the above mentioned figures, COVID-19 has still not reached a point where it surpasses other illnesses which are also global emergencies, such as malaria, HIV/AIDS, and cancer. And whilst it is true that the coronavirus’ rates have been burgeoning and it is spreading super fast, there is hope that it can be tackled (i.e. most people recover).
What other cognitive biases should I be aware of when it comes to illness?
Apart from the base rate fallacy, there is another everyday error people make when making sense of information, and this phenomenon is called availability heuristic (Hardman, 2015); which happens when people consciously allocate their attention to a specific situation whilst at the same time ignoring equally important situations, and then believing that whatever they paid attention to has a higher frequency than what they never consciously paid attention to. In the case of COVID-19, as demonstrated above, there are currently other diseases with death tolls way higher than this virus. Nevertheless, due to this cognitive bias people tend to think that COVID-19 has a higher frequency of deaths than other illnesses, but this happens because the media industry is selective about the information they present to the public, and the information they omit. The daily death tolls mentioned above are evidence about base rate fallacy and availability heuristics present in everyday interpretation of data.
What can I do to protect myself?
- Follow the GOV.UK (2020a) advice.
- Take a deep breath, we are all doing the best we can to help.
- If you are experiencing flu-like symptoms, contact your doctor or call 111 (NHS, 2020).
- Wash your hands regularly with soap and warm water.
- Critically judge death rates without panicking.
- Self-isolate, and remain informed about developments of the outbreak.
- Be kind to emergency staff, as their job has no lockdown.
- If you are a journalist, be mindful about how you present your information. Everything functions better when people remain calm.
References
GOV.UK (2020) ‘Coronavirus (COVID 19): UK government response’ [Online]. Available at https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-government-response (Accessed 19 March 2020).
GOV.UK (2020b) ‘Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK’ [Online]. Available at https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public (Accessed 19 March 2020).
Hardman, D. (2015) ‘Everyday errors in making sense of the world’, in Barker, M. J. and Turner, J. (eds), Living Psychology: From the Everyday to the Extraordinary, Milton Keynes, The Open University, pp. 51-85.
National Health Service (2020) ‘Coronavirus (COVID-19)’ [Online]. Available at https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/ (Accessed 19 March 2020)
World Health Organization (2020) ‘COVID-19 situation’ [Online]. Available at https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd (Accessed 19 March 2020).
Worldmeter (2020a) ‘COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak’ [Online]. Available at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed 19 March 2020).
Worldmeter (2020a) ‘Worldwide’ [Online]. Available at https://www.worldometers.info (Accessed 19 March 2020).




